The Smokescreen of War: Why the Israel-Iran Conflict Won’t Change Our Investment Strategy

Please do not make any financial decisions based on the contents of this blog. My blogs are designed to be thought-provoking and introspective, not financial advice. Please do not act on any document unless it is titled “Statement of Advice.”

Let me be blunt: nothing happening in the Middle East right now changes our investment strategy.

Yes, the headlines are terrifying. Yes, if Iran and Israel escalate, oil will skyrocket again, and yes, the entire region will light up with rage and fire. But if you think this is anything other than a carefully timed distraction from deeper systemic rot, you haven’t been paying attention.

A Convenient Crisis

Wars like this serve many purposes. They rally the public. They flood the airwaves. They give politicians and central bankers a get-out-of-jail-free card. While the masses focus on missiles, the real war is being waged on your purchasing power.

Oil and Inflation: Not the Real Culprit

Disruptions to oil supply chains will raise prices. Petrochemicals form the backbone of almost everything you use: plastics, textiles, cleaning products, even your food packaging. A major shock to the oil market means price rises not just at the pump but on every aisle of the supermarket and in every factory floor across the globe.

But let’s not kid ourselves. The price of oil is not the primary driver of inflation. We’ve had oil quadruple that of today’s price in the past, and yet, there was almost no inflation.

The real villain? Money printing on a scale so outrageous it makes Weimar Germany look frugal.

In just the last 12 months:

• The US money supply ballooned by over $1 trillion.
• Australia quietly added another $200 billion.
• The European Central Bank? A jaw-dropping $580 billion increase.

Let that sink in. That’s trillions of dollars conjured out of thin air, flooding the system and quietly eroding the value of every dollar, euro and Aussie in your wallet. And while war creates spectacle, printing creates dependency – the kind that enslaves generations.

The Hidden Agenda Behind the Noise

This conflict may be real, but the timing, coverage, and political usefulness are textbook. What does it distract us from?

1. The Fragile Financial System

Bank balance sheets are loaded with unrealised losses. Commercial property is teetering. Private credit markets are a ticking time bomb. While you’re watching nuclear sites being blown up, index funds around the world are buying junk.

2. De-Dollarisation and BRICS Moves

As war grabs headlines, countries like China, Russia and Brazil are actively moving away from the US dollar. They’re buying gold, setting up bilateral trade deals, and building an alternative to SWIFT. They are already bypassing US dollars and using their own blockchains to settle billion dollar deals in local digital currencies (sorry crypto bros, they aren’t using bitcoin or any other ticking time bomb digital casino tokens). Wall Street and crypto holders should be more terrified than Tehran.

3. Political Legitimacy Crisis

Western democracies are wobbling. France is on fire, Germany is in denial, Australia’s household savings ratio just touched 0%, and the US is one electoral misstep away from civil upheaval. A war is the perfect unifier for a fractured population.

4. Underinvestment in Energy Infrastructure

While everyone cheers for green energy, the reality is blackouts, underfunded grids, and soaring electricity bills. We’re not investing in energy security; we’re virtue-signalling our way into an unstable future.

5. Consumer Demand Collapse

Behind the illusion of a strong economy lies record credit card debt, collapsing discretionary spending, and falling real wages. When people can’t afford eggs and rent, they usually don’t care about foreign policy – until it comes with a fuel surcharge.

6. Global Mental Health Crisis

Depression, purposelessness, homelessness, addiction, and collapsing birth rates: these are the quiet killers. Not bombs. Not bullets. But a collective demoralisation of the human spirit, with no war to blame and no easy fix.

7. Vaccine Accountability and Biosecurity Leaks

Slowly, the mainstream are catching up to what a brave few uncovered many years ago: the COVID narrative is riddled with lies, fraud, coercion and shady funding trails. Western governments are quietly changing the recommendation to UNSAFE while they settle massive lawsuits for unfair dismissals and criminal medical negligence. But don’t expect coverage when there’s a war to broadcast.

8. Technocratic Control and Digital Currencies

While missiles fly, central banks are finalising the rails for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). With programmable money and digital ID frameworks, the potential for control is unprecedented. And guess what? You’re not being consulted.

9. Monopoly Power and Silent Consolidation

BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street are slowly absorbing ownership of everything from your groceries to your news feeds. Mergers in defence, food, pharma, and even housing are accelerating. But war is good for business. Especially theirs.

10. Proxy Wars Heating Up Elsewhere

From Taiwan to the Sahel, the world is a powder keg. But you’ll hear about exactly one conflict – the one that keeps the public glued to fear, divided, and not asking real questions.

What This Means for Investors

Here’s the truth: none of this changes our approach. We don’t make investment decisions based on headline hysteria. We watch what central banks do, not what politicians say. We allocate based on reality, not narratives.

The Israel-Iran conflict might move oil short-term, yes. But in the long run, the money supply matters more than missile supply. Inflation is being driven not by scarcity of commodities, but by the grotesque expansion of credit and fiat currency.

War is a smokescreen. A distraction. A well-timed circus.

You want to protect your wealth? Then stop watching the news and start watching the flows.

Follow the money. Ignore the noise. The truth is hidden in plain sight.